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According to ZESCO and Government, Zambians are in darkness for about 12 hours per day due to low water levels.
This comes after months of assurances that there is surplus power and multiple deals to export power.
This article follows the trend of statements by the Minister of Energy, Mr Peter Kapala and ZESCO officials, in order to track the real cause of this blackout.
Read more: ‘ZESCO, a lost cause’, CBU professor, Sichone, says off-grid energy needed
Let us begin with a background: In 2020, ZESCO and Nampower from Namibia signed an agreement for the export of 100MW of electricity to Namibia in a bid to increase foreign earnings. The money was meant to support the debt servicing of ZESCO loans.
During the year 2021, it can be assumed that ZESCO exported power to Namibia, because in March 2022, it was announced that Electricity export grew to become the highest non-Agro export for Zambia at a record $18 million per year.
A month after this record breaking announcement, that is, in April 2022, ZESCO and Nampower signed another agreement for the export of an additional 80MW of power, bringing the total to 180MW.
This was on the backdrop of increased demand for Zambian power in the region with ZESA from Zimbabwe also showing interest to import 100 MW on conditions that it would pay $6.3 million per month for the electricity.
In July 2022, the Minister of Energy, Mr. Peter Kapala assured the nation that the exportation of electricity will not lead to load shedding.
He explained that this was due to the fact that four turbines were operational at Kafue Gorge Lower and the fifth one was being tested in readiness for full installation.
Later, the nation was informed that the fully operational five turbines would produce 750MW and that overall, Zambia had recorded an electricity generation surplus of 1,156 MW, against a peak national demand of 2,300MW, following the National generation capacity increase to 3,456MW.
Further, the ZESCO managing director stated that this surplus electricity was available for export within the Interconnected Southern Africa Power Pool (SAPP) network, thereby hinting of a possible Zimbabwe export deal.
Towards the end of April 2022, the ZESCO Board Chairperson, Mr. Vickson Ncube, informed the nation that the utility company (ZESCO) was being cautious not to suffocate domestic demand as it exported electricity.
The Minister of Energy then added that South Africa had also shown interest to import power and confirmed that Zimbabwe would begin receiving power in May 2022, under a 5 year deal.
By August 2022, plans were underway to supply electricity to Angola, with a Zambian firm leading an initiative aimed at electrifying the various regions of Eastern Angola.
During the same month (August 2022) the Minister of Energy announced plans to export power to East Africa after scheduling trips to kickstart discussions with Tanzania and Kenya.
The Minister added that Zambia was doing this because it had a surplus and was in a position to export quite a “substantial amount of electricity.”
In October 2022, Chama District began to experience power outages.
The Minister of Energy explained that this was because Chama district is dependent on power imports from ESCOM of Malawi.
After a month, In December 2022, the Energy Minister suddenly announced that ZESCO will implement a load management regime of up to 6 hours daily, due to low water levels at the Kariba and the need to avoid a complete shutdown.
Finally, in January 2023, ZESCO announced that it would adjust the load shedding to 12 hours daily until further notice.
Focus was drawn to the Kariba North Bank power station which was said to have reduced generation to 400MW against an installed capacity of 1080MW.
Conclusion: After reading between the lines and assuming that all the statement were true, it is clear that Zambians are experiencing load shedding today because ZESCO and Government failed to plan appropriately for the seasonal risk of low water levels.
They generated surplus power through excessive use of water, exported that power and entered into contracts to supply more power without fully appreciating the risks.
Therefore, the Zambian local consumer and by extension; the Zambian economy, is suffering today as a convenient scapegoat for this poor planning.
(Credit to the News Diggers Newspaper for supplying the articles which were reviewed during the developing of the above timeline)
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