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The Zambian government has announced that the country will experience normal rainfall during the 2024/2025 season, with episodic heavy rainfall and potential flooding in flood-prone areas.
Green Economy and Environment Minister, Mike Mposha, stated that the current neutral phase of the El-Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was expected to transition to a weak La Niña phase during the 2024/2025 rainfall season.
Launching the 2024/2025 rainfall forecast in Lusaka on Friday, Mposha explained that the weak La Niña, characterized by below-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean, was expected to primarily influence Zambia’s rainfall patterns.
He noted that the 2024/2025 rainfall season was likely to bring normal to below-normal rainfall in the northeastern parts of the country.
“Rain is expected to start in October over Western Province and the northern parts of Luapula and Northern Provinces,” Mposha said.
“However, there will be a delayed onset in mid-December over the extreme northeastern parts, including Luangwa, Chirundu, Gwembe, and Sinazongwe Districts.”
The cessation of rains is expected in March 2025 over the southern half of the country and by the end of April in the eastern and northern parts of Luapula and Northern Provinces.
Mposha warned that the season may include dry spells and an increased risk of agricultural pests and diseases.
Areas expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall could also experience flash floods, fungal outbreaks, and waterborne diseases such as cholera, dysentery and typhoid, along with increased malaria transmission and infrastructural damage to bridges, roads, and culverts.
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“Generally, rains are expected to set in by the end of November 2024 in most parts of the country. It is also important to note that every season, dry spells occur and, in some cases, lead to crop loss,” he said.
Mposha stated the need for investment in and strengthening of meteorological services and early warning systems as a strategic priority with significant benefits.
He also highlighted that improving forecast accuracy and expanding hydrometeorological observation networks would enhance the country’s ability to anticipate and respond to extreme weather events such as droughts and floods.
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