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Michele Morel, founder and executive director of The Institute of Research and Analysis, has advised Zambia and other African nations to prepare for significant shifts in U.S. foreign policy under a potential second Trump administration.
According to Morel, these changes could impact Africa’s economic, political, and security dynamics.
In a policy analysis paper released Friday, Morel projected that a renewed Trump administration would likely pursue deep cuts to foreign aid, with Africa facing substantial reductions in support from the U.S.
“Based on Trump’s prior term, campaign pledges and policy ideas from conservative think tanks, several changes in U.S.-Africa engagement appear probable,” she said.
Among the most concerning shifts, Morel noted, was the possibility of converting foreign aid grants to loans, which would increase debt burdens on African economies and threaten existing humanitarian and development programmes.
“The Trump administration had repeatedly proposed cuts to State Department and USAID budgets, and Africa may bear the brunt of these reductions,” she added.
Morel also highlighted Trump’s “America First” stance, which she anticipated would emphasise private-sector investment over government-led development aid in Africa.
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In light of these potential changes, she urged African countries to diversify their international partnerships, strengthening economic and diplomatic ties with other global powers, such as China, Russia, India and the European Union.
“There is a need to boost intra-African trade and partnerships through initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA),” Morel concluded.
She stated that a proactive strategy could help mitigate the impact of U.S. policy shifts on the continent.
Similarly, Esther Banda, an economist and academic, expressed optimism about Zambia’s economic prospects following Donald Trump’s election as President of the United States.
Banda, who serves as the Dean of Business Investment and Education at Chresto University in Lusaka, expressed believe that Trump’s presidency could enhance investor confidence in Zambia and bolster economic growth.
In a telephone interview on Friday, Banda highlighted the impact that U.S. political developments could have on global economies, including Zambia’s.
She noted that the recent opening of the first-ever economic office at the American Embassy in Zambia signaled a commitment from the U.S. to deepen its economic ties with the nation.
“With the U.S. dollar strengthening after Trump’s victory, we expect some of the positive impacts could trickle down to Zambia,” Banda said.
“What we need to do is strengthen our relations with the United States and position ourselves to attract more American investment.”
She stated that Zambia’s economic growth could benefit from robust U.S. engagement, pointing to historical examples of how African economies have thrived when major global economies perform well.
Banda compared this potential impact to that of China’s economic boom, which she said brought advantages to many African countries, adding that similar benefits could accrue to Zambia under Trump’s administration.
“We hope for economic stability,” she added, “and we also expect that areas like water and sanitation could see improvements with American support.
Maintaining good relations with the U.S. government was crucial for fostering this support.”
Banda, however, cautioned the Trump administration against interfering in African economies or taking actions that could destabilize the region.
“We hope that the U.S. will respect African nations’ economic autonomy and refrain from actions that might undermine local economies,” she said, emphasising the importance of a balanced and respectful partnership between the two nations.
With Trump’s presidency potentially marking a shift in U.S.-Africa relations, Banda remains hopeful that Zambia can leverage this opportunity to attract more investment and foster sustainable growth.
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