Economist, Zulu, calls for speedy but cautious revision on 2024 budget

Economist, Emmanuel Zulu, has called for thorough consultations before the government revises the 2024 National Budget.

“The national budget is a legal document as established within the National Planning and Budgeting Act of 2020 and therefore its revision is not an overnight thing but one which requires Parliamentary approval,” Zulu said in a posting on his official Facebook handle on Monday.

He said the government presented a K177.9 billion 2024 National Budget with over 70 percent of funding to be raised domestically.

“We saw the government increasing revenue targets for the Zambia Revenue Authority(ZRA) to over K125 billion from around K110 billion in 2023.

“This was on the premise that the economic climate will be favourable with a growth project at 4.8 percent and that the revenue collection wing will be more proactive with improvement in revenue collection systems,” Zulu observed.

However, he noted what had befallen the nation in many aspects, such as the drought, but called for a quick turnaround from the projected figures of growth, inflation rate, revenue target and deficit.

“It calls for immediate action to revise the 2024 National Budget as a number of things that we expected to be concluded in the first quarter that would give us a fair forecast on Zambia’s economic performance for 2024 still hang in balance,” he stated.

Zulu pointed out that despite the optimism on expected copper production increase in the mining sector from Konkola Copper Mine and Mopani Copper Mine, progress seemed slow.

“The Kasenseli Gold mine is another project that has gone quiet. It therefore leaves us to beg to question the ambitions of those entrusted to manage our affairs if indeed they appreciate how dire the situation is in the country and that our country’s strength currently lies in the mining sector amidst this drought situation,” he said.

With progress made on Official Creditors debt restructuring of US$6.3 billion, Zulu said it entailed that debt service obligations for interest would become due this year even as the country waited to conclude with private creditors.

“We seem to be lagging on the part of revenue from the key forex earner; mining, even when the copper prices are hitting a high of $9000/tonne on the international market,” he observed.

Zulu further expressed worry that if things were really not moving as fast as the situation was becoming dire, then the country risked being caught napping with another default on debt interest payment obligations which may further turn the economy into a “junk” state.

He said the El nino situation which had affected power supply and output in most sectors was definitely going to compromise a number of projects and investments.

Hence, Zulu said the government’s efforts should not just be seen in statements but quick action being taken on the budget amendment with speedy engagement of stakeholders from different sections.

“We don’t have to wait for the second half of the year to start seeing people panicking to have a “revised budget” approved,” he said.

On the other hand, Zulu was concerned that the cost of living was hitting it’s highest in history which had already gone beyond K10,000 in Lusaka as measured by the Jesuit Centre for Theological Reflection (JCTR) basic needs and nutrition basket with inflation rate likely to continue staggering away from the target band of single digit.

“We should see more allocations going towards social support beyond the K60 billion in which was allocated, adding that to some extent, the country should expect a funding buffer for targeted private citizens-led businesses to access cheaper credit for business survival as commercial lending rates are projected to remain elevated in the wake of tighter monetary policy.

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